“O Medo da Morte Flexibiliza Perdas e Aproxima Polos: Consequências Políticas da Pandemia da Covid-19 no Brasil”

Voters are increasingly polarized, generating both a sense of belonging to the ingroup and animosity towards out-groups. We further investigate the issue in Brazil, neither by partisanship nor ideology, but rather by affective identification of voters with a political leader. Based on two preregistered experimental surveys (N=7020 and N=5008), we show that a social program, the emergency aid cash transfer to the poor population has generated paradoxical effects. Voters that disapprove of Bolsonaro opposed this policy when exposed to a manipulation treatment where the president they loath would extract electoral benefits from it. On the other hand, Bolsonaro’s supporters better evaluated the emergency aid when they were exposed to the information that it could generate electoral gains for their beloved leader. The experiment also shows that the proximity to people who suffered severe COVID-19 infection and/or died present greater rejection of the cash transfer program when they received treatment.