Análise de Gols do Campeonato Brasileiro Série A (2013 - 2022).

This report presents a detailed statistical analysis of goals scored in the Brazilian Série A football league from 2013 to 2022. The distributions of goals scored by home and away teams were compared against the Poisson and Binomial probability models. Using data from 3,800 matches, we computed goal averages per half, fitted probability distributions, and conducted goodness-of-fit tests. Furthermore, we performed 15,000 Monte Carlo simulations based on Poisson and Binomial assumptions to evaluate how well the models captured the observed outcomes. After confirming that the Poisson distribution provides a significantly better fit to the real data compared to the Binomial model, we implemented the Maher model—a well-known bivariate Poisson variant—to further analyze match outcomes. Results confirm the suitability of the Poisson framework and the effectiveness of the Maher model in capturing goal-scoring behavior in football matches.