Análise de Estratégias de Combate à Malária Utilizando o Modelo COMORBUSS

Ano
2026
Escola
EMAp - Escola de Matemática Aplicada
Aluno-pesquisador
Roberta Müller Nuñes
Orientador
Prof. Dr. Claudio José Struchiner
Objetivos ODS
Saúde e bem-estar
Localidade
Rio de Janeiro

This research project investigates the use of mathematical and computational modeling to evaluate nitisinone (NTBC) as a complementary strategy for malaria vector control. Initially, the project focused on literature review, technical training on the COMORBUSS model, and the study of environmental factors affecting mosquito population dynamics, including the exploration of climate data from the ERA5 database provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. During the development of the project, the Population Genetics and Ecology in Mosquitoes (PopGEM) model was adopted as an intermediate computational framework for the implementation and evaluation of a first NTBC module, due to its detailed representation of mosquito population dynamics, life cycle, and vector control interventions. The activities included the design of an extended PopGEM framework incorporating proposed NTBC-related modifications, the implementation of a preliminary pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic module, and the development of computational experiments to investigate the effects of different intervention scenarios. Besides the computational implementation, the project contributed to a deeper understanding of mathematical epidemiology, vector biology, and scientific programming in R, providing a solid foundation for future integration of the proposed methodology into COMORBUSS and for the continuation of this research in the author's undergraduate thesis.

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